TA page for 1st April week

"hikeup_yourskirt_alittle_more" said

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=15784668&tid=nvda&sid=15784668&mid=373557

==================================================================================

TA Page

Technical Scans for Monday, April 3:
The following technical set-ups are designed for potential daytrades. Overall market conditions need to be assessed to ensure success (i.e, taking a Long set-up with the market selling off doesn't bode well for success). Basic entry points are above the previous day's high for longs and below the previous day's low for shorts, but more experienced trades may choose to enter earlier. We do plan on adjusting the scans as time goes by since this page is new. Any questions, comments, or suggestions can be emailed to Scott Smith, ssmith@briefing.com Feel free to tell us which set-ups or scans you have found useful or if you have any of your own that you'd like to share with us.

Top Long Candidates : Strong reversals after staging a False Break lower

CNF, STJ

Top Short Candidates: Strong reversals after staging a False Break higher

ATHR, ATI, BYD, ETN, FFIV, HELX, KSS, MS, NVDA, PCP, PXD, WYNN

Volatility Contraction Set-ups: 2 consecutive inside trading days that may present a trading op on a range expansion through its previous range.

AGN, EBAY, GOOG, HAR, JOE, PIXR, RKH

Oversold : Recently sold off outside of Lower Bollinger Band

ERJ, EXC, FNM, FRE, MHK, NBIX, PEG, PNC

Overbought: Recently extended outside of Upper Bollinger Band

ARA, AU, CENX, CKH, EQIX, INFY, LMS, NIHD, NVDA, PTEN, RIO, WHQ

Wide Range BREAKOUTS (Potential for follow-through in coming sessions)

BEE, FMCN, GES, GVHR TROW

Wide Range BREAKDOWNS (potential for follow-through in coming sessions)

ABFS, BF.B, CI, DTE, EIX, ENB, FE, FFC, FRE, ILMN, LNT, MHK, NWL, OCE, PEP, PFE, PFG, PPH, SLM, TGT

U.S. economy to slow in second quarter

IRWIN KELLNER
Spring brake
Commentary: U.S. economy to slow in second quarter

By Dr. Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:26 AM ET Mar 28, 2006


HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- After a bang-up first quarter, the U.S. economy will grow at a much slower pace in the second.
No doubt about it, the first quarter was a barn-burner. If the MarketWatch consensus is right, the economy expanded at the fastest quarterly pace in 2-1/2 years, close to 5%.
By the same token, the forecasters who participate in our MarketWatch survey think the pace of growth will cool during the second quarter to an annual rate of little more than 3%.
Me, I think the pace will be more like 2.5%, but I'm not going to quibble over half a point. See our Forecast page.
There are several reasons why you should anticipate a slowdown.
For one thing, the first quarter benefited from the unwinding of factors that depressed growth in the fourth quarter, mainly the after-effects of last year's hurricanes. Fourth-quarter growth of 1.6 percent was the slowest since the first quarter of 2003.
The first quarter also was helped by the extremely mild weather most of the country experienced in January. This permitted more outdoor activity than usual, ranging from shopping to construction.
Even the blizzard that hit the Northeast in February did not depress economic activity the way you would have expected, since it struck on a weekend, and was mostly cleaned up by start of business on Monday.
The second reason is really a plethora of factors.
There's the flattening of the yield curve and the slowdown in money growth, as well as rising interest rates that have clearly impacted the housing sector. Besides this, most households are struggling under record debt loads, weak jobs and income growth, soaring energy and health care costs.
Let's not forget that the savings rate went negative last year -- the first time that household spending collectively exceeded personal incomes for a full year since 1933 -- which, in case you forgot, was the nadir of the Great Depression.
You can see the coming slowdown in the numbers -- especially in those that foreshadow future trends.
Last week's reports alone revealed a sizable drop in new orders for durable goods ex-transportation, the biggest percentage decline in new home sales in nine years which left the inventory of unsold homes at a ten-year high, a drop in sales of existing homes from year-ago levels and a decline in the index of leading economic indicators, making February the seventh out of the last 14 months that this index has failed to rise.
These negative numbers, combined with the likelihood that interest rates are no longer so low that they are pushing the economy forward, will make determining the future course of monetary policy far from a slam-dunk.
From here on out, the monetary mavens will have to monitor the incoming stats very carefully.
They don't want to tighten too much and push the economy into another recession. By the same token, they don't want to stop prematurely and risk a flare up in inflation.
Talk about having your work cut out for you.
Dr. Irwin Kellner is chief economist for MarketWatch. He also is the Weller professor of economics at Hofstra University and chief economist for North Fork Bank.

Lessons learned from JRCC

My recent JRCC trades are so sick that I ruined my trading mood. Stopped my growing UP momentum in the past 2 weeks.

The mistake started from average down loss of 400 short position of JRCC on Mar 22(Wednesday) when my balance appoache $49700. If I cut loss then, my loss would just be $300, and I would not have so much trouble.

Where is JRCC from? I never heard from it before I try my portfolio test. My short creteria picked JRCC which met with my understanding of bad (or down turn) stock.
1) Net Income

SP500期货简介 (ZT)

http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=412615

SP500期货简介

1) Settle down with cash, not underlying SP500 index
2) Value calculated with SP500 index * $250
3) Criteria is every 0.10 SP500 point change
4) Expiration date Mar./June/Sept./Dec.

So 10 SP500 point in 1 SP500 future contract means:
10 * $250 = $2500

Clean up JRCC and start recovering on Mar 28,06 (Tuesday)

It is Tuesday (Mar 28, 2006). The market is green in the morning. The NAZ and DIA have modrate gain. NVDA brought my notice again. It had a very big relative gain. It rises to 53.60 in the morning from 53. The SONY did boost its up momentumn. SONY design deal is US30 million. So I think the market overact on this news(on Thursday) and TA good UP shape. I decided to short 100 NVDA at 53.78 at 10:09AM.

In the mean time, I started reducing JRCC position when I saw JRCC opened high at around 35.10 and dropped through 35 quick in the morning. From 10:13 to 14:07PM, I covered 2200 JRCC from 34.56, 34.51, 34.58, 34.51). Since I still believe JRCC turned over to down turn. I kept 200 SHORT position. This 2200 shares escape, I realized loss of $1167 from JRCC today.

From 10:19 to 14:04, I cotinued shorting NVDA from 53.90, Three 53.98, 54.21, 54.22, 54.32, 54.44, 54.54, 54.60, 54.65, 54.68, 54.75, 54.78, 54,82, Three 54.85, and 54.86 until FEB rate hike coming out at around 14:04PM when NVDA used to peak at 54.88. The peak time NVDA position was -2100.

Damn it! I started average up again. It is FEB rate hike which saved me. From 14:05PM, the whole market turned RED. DOW dropped over 100 points and NAZ dropped 15 points. NVDA also dropped from 54.8X level to 54.XX level. I started reducing NVDA position from 14:28PM to 16:00 at two 54.38, 54.37, 54.36, 54.28, 54.20, 54.15, 54.02, 54.03, 54.02, 54.01, 53.98, 53.88) totaling 1300 position. It gave out profit of $366.

In the mean time, I started to build portfolio again.
bought THI : 200 shares cost $26.56
bought FDRY (Hao and SDrider's pick): 200 shares at cost of 17.88
bought VPHM (My pick on last Sunday): 100 shares at cost of 11.37

Today's results:
Cut 2200 JRCC, realize loss -$1167
Realize gain on shorting NVDA: $366


The ending position:
THI: 200
JRCC: -200
NVDA: -800
FDRY: 200
VPHM: 100

Ending Balance: $45000 back tp important height. Let me start marching to 50000 from here again.

Cut THI nightmare on Mar 27,2006 (Mon)

It is Monday (Mar 27,2006)

When I wake up in the morning, at arond 9:00, I opened the IB and Ameritrade windows. What I am expect? I am expect lower ask price of JRCC (It closed at 34 on Last Friday when my total dropped to 46000).

I saw bid price was 37.xx. I didn't care, then I saw there were 500-600 shares settled at around 37.xx which made me very upset that I saw my balance dropped to 41400 when JRCC was 37!!

I closed the windows at home then I drive to office. Then I saw JRCC started at around $34.4, I relaxed a little bit. But JRCC continue rises to 35.00.

I decided to short JRCC again. From 13:18 to 13:33PM, I shorted 1100 shares of JRCC between (35.00-35.03), unfortunately, JRCC didn't stop rising, it even hit 35.5 near 2:00PM. Then I realized I was facing the music.

In the mean time THI (Tim Hortons) continues down side drop, I dropped to $27 level. At 2:00PM, both my JRCC and THI were in deep loss ( JRCC around 2000, THI around 3000). The leverage ratio is near to 3.0. It hits margin call at 13:37PM, so IB sold 100 JRCC at 35.11.

I have to decide cutting lass in one stock and save the other. Which one to cut? THI or JRCC? THI was continuously weak which have to be ascribed to fundamental reason(US expansion doubt). JRCC is a small stock having big valuation. There is no fundamental further good/bad news at this level. The stock price is approching its mid line of bolline line. It should have more chances to fluctuate down to let me escape.

So I started cut 1000 THI from 13:44 to 15:38. Pricing from (27.17-27.27). considering the cost of around $30.08. My loss in THI is
around $2800.

After cuting THI, I still had room to save my JRCC. I continue shorting JRCC. I shorted another 300 JRCC at 35.14, 35.15, 35.17 at 13:36PM. Now my position of JRCC is 3000. Even though THI is cleaned. I am still bearing big risk. What if JRCC climb again tomorrow? I have to think of a way to escape!!!!

So I began to enter lower priced bid order like 34.80. I covered 300 JRCC at 34.80.
When it was 3:30pm near closing, the JRCC used to drop to 34.70, but I didn't catch up this chance. It bounced back to around 35. I have to take actively cut loss. I entered couple of 34.98 orders selling JRCC. I sold 300 more JRCC at $34.98. Then the remaining 2400 JRCC SHORT can save me from margin call.

The JRCC closed at 35.06.

Today's result:

THI: Lose $2800.
JRCC: Lose $500

Ending balance: $43000.

What is bad day!!!!!!

PEG

PEG Ratio



The PEG ratio is a powerful formula which compares earnings growth and the Price Earnings Ratio:

Divide the current Price Earnings Ratio by the expected long-term growth rate (in earnings per share)*
More than 1.0 is poor;
Less than 1.0 is good;
Less than 0.5 is excellent.

With the
Fool Ratio Tend To
.50 or less Buy
.50 to .65 Look to buy
.65 to 1.00 Watch (or "hold")
1.00 to 1.30 Look to sell
1.30 to 1.70 Consider shorting
Over 1.70 Short

VPHM

VPHM will back to $16 soon

文章来源: knicks 于 2006-03-24 19:53:26



This is my first pick for this board. VPHM, target 13-15 in two wks
Just becasue a rumor generic candidates will come to market earlier (earliest year 2008), stock down 10+ days in a row from 20 to 10, there is not much down side but huge up potential. few reasons why VPHM could go higher.

1.Viropharma is in a strong cash position with no
debt, solid prospects in the pipeline. rev will up 30% this yr to 180 millions with high % profit.

2. Maribavir Phase II is complete (last enrollment
November '05) and results will be announced by the end
of March (next week!!!) Maribavir Phase III will begin as scheduled mid
year in stem cells, and end of year in organs,
indicating that all is clear in Phase II!!

3) earning report will be excellent.

4. Possible FDA clarification

IF VPHM close strongly to 11+, it will quickly back to 13-15 range. IMO, do your own DD

http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=410955

Does mistake happen again? (Average down THI today)

It is Mar 24, 2006 Friday, the end trading day of this week.

It is the day when GOOG AH.BH jump for SP500 news and THI(Tim Hortons) IPO debuts. Before opening I looked at my JRCC to see if I have any chance of saving my trapped JRCC. The bid and ask were 33.08 and 33.78. By hoping swing/bouncing trade. I entered sell 100 JRCC at 33.78 and 100 JRCC 33.80. They were exceuted 1.5 minutes before 9:30. I entered short 34 and 34.20 around 9:30AM. They were also excuted. To my big surprise, the JRCC ran to above 34.80. At 34.80 price, my balance would be 35500. That is a nightmare! I entered couple of buy orders at the price range of 33.20 to 33.01.

In the mean time, I bought 500 THI from 32, 31.94, 30.96, 30, 30.

When I got office at around 10:20AM, I found JRCC dropped a lot in the past 30 minutes, The minimun point was 32.03 which hits 500 of my orders. JRCC was 32.10 when I first opened window in office, then it rises to 32.20 which is my new break-even point. Damn I missed it.

It rised slowly which didn't alert me to cover hoping it may drop again like yesterday. In the mean time, the THI dropped slowly from 30 to 29.62. THI bounced back at 1:38, I did sell 200 THI at 29.92. What if I cut loss now!!! (Big mistake)
THI continued dropping to 29.35 which was the 1100th THI I bought. I don't have any buying power and watch THI dropping again under 29.

I was waiting for magic, but magic didn't happen today. The JRCC kept rising and THI kept dropping. What a bad day! So bad. 该跌的没跌反而涨,该涨的没涨反而跌

Which one to cut loss? I select JRCC. I intentionly cover 800 shares of JRCC at 33.97-33.99 which left me $582 real loss.

So far, the positions are:
JRCC: -1700
THI: 1000
-NTES PUT:

The account loss in JRCC is -840.33 (at the late price of 33.69 and cost of 33.2)
The account loss in THI is -1971.31 (at the late price of 28.11 and cost of 30.08)
Small loss in NTES PUT writer: -20

The total balance of today is 46350. which is 2250 below last week's ending balance of 48600.

The hiding account loss is 2810. I need to develop a strategy to save them. Let me think in the weekend.

Average down mistake again on Mar 23 Thursday

On Mar 23, 2006 (Thursday), the market looks doomy. Both DOW and NAZ dropped at the beginning. I thought it could be safe to play with my "SHORT" candidates.

I had -400 JRCC at hand which lost around $240. (At this time, the cost was -$31.9) Seeing dropping DIA and QQQQ, I short 200 JRCC again at $33.00 at 9:49AM before I left home. In the mean time, I take profit of BIDU at 52.00(GOOG TRADE) and I short GOOG at $345 (EXCELLENT TRADE), then I left for office.

When I got office I found DIA and QQQQ were still in red, and GOOG dropped to $341. I bought WEN at 63.68. I was very delighted with my insight on GOOG. And continue short 800 shares of JRCC at 33.00 to 33.02 level. (What I want to do? My intrincit feeling drive me to take RED DIA-QQQQ chance to short JRCC again to average down cost!!!!)

Then I saw GOOG bouncing around 341. I need to take profit from it. So I cover my 100 GOOG short position at 340.88 at 11:20AM, what a correct decision! I have made many wise decision on GOOG recently!!!

Before lunch at around 12:20PM, JRCC began to rise passing 33.08 towards 33.15. Both DOW and NAZ were in deep RED. I did not realize the risk. (I should check why this one rise against the dropping market! I learned in the evening that all COAL companies were GOOD GREEN when DOW-NAZ were DEEP RED!!!!

After lunch from 13:22 to 14:49, the JRCC kept rising, I short JRCC again from $33.20 to $33.88. Now I have 3600 shares of JRCC, amazing, isn't it? It is a sense of GAMBLING!!!! Why average down again????? Smoking shit!

It is 15:00 and there is no sign of dropping JRCC. I have to clean up my positions by selling no-big-loss positions like DSPG, SRR, INTC. I also clean the winning position like HUBG and small-win positions like HTLD, GCT, BCSB.
It is a pratical (GOOD) strategy to save some tempararily lossing position. It did postpone cover the position in the high price. In order to save itself, I gradually sold 900 JRCC from 33.75 to 33.58.

Unexpectly, the JRCC did drop a lot from 15:30 to 16:00PM, it even hits 100 shares of my 33.10 cover-buy position at 15:50PM. I took a big relax then. Because the balance of my account almost back to normal 49900. I wasted a good chance to save all my trapped JRCC positions! The after hour trade push JRCC back to 33.20. This is a position which I just lost $500.

In the evening, I was temparily released that I even wrote this story in DaQian to relax one nervous heart on trapped GOOG SHORT!

In the evening, I didn't write trading diary. I did some research on what happened to this negative loss stock. It is in COAL business and all the COAL business stocks were big GREEN today!!! While DOW/NAZ were big RED.

I didn't figure out why COAL behave so well in DEEL RED DOW/QQQQ. With the coming GOOG joins SP500 news and Tim Hortons' IPO, I paid attention to these 2 big players.

060322Tue 研究结果

LONG:

ESV: 47.34 (46.55, 48.04)
HTLD: 23.79 (23.10,23.87) , AH 23.25
WDFC: 30.94 (29.72, 30.94)
ICUI: 35.83 (34.72, 35.88)

写给要做"终极投资人"--------当日冲销! (ZT)

写给要做"终极投资人"--------当日冲销!

文章来源: 捣乱者 于 2005-05-07 20:46:49
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=268909

要想跟俺学做”当天冲销”?俺是绝不会教你的!
不是俺自私,实在是因为你如内功不厚,定会”走火入魔”死得很快很快地….
最好不要!
然.俺也不是无情无义之人,送这一贴于你,当你背熟了以下三点六条,它! 虽不能帮到你太多,但俺寻思着你也许大概会比常人多在这市场中撑过七天八天的……

Dtaytrade实战指南:

一.选股
a. 前一晚你要做一些功课,首先,自然要去预设一下明天的大盘是涨还是跌(做个股先要料大市),假若你结论隔天的大盘是盘整?给你的建议是,这一天最好是去菜市场,买菜逛街也好,重要的是不要去看这行情了,看了不但白看,手一痒,失了定力落得个伤神而又不讨好!

b. 假若你对大市的方向己有了把握,接下来须去找一批与大盘方向一致的股票来做明天的候选,它们应有的起马条件是:
1.每天至少有100万股以上的成交量,
2.你认为的可能这股在第二天有至少3%以上的幅度摆动,

重要!!!此时如你手上正好有一个非常好的或者认为非常烂的股票,但你估计它们的方向与大市的方向却又不一致, 我建议不要候选! 你没有福份去亨受它.

二.操作
a. 开盘了(或盘前)将前晚选的股下单进去!可以是一次将这几个单子全部填下去,一次满仓或也可分批逐步加仓,但是,加仓有一个重要原则!!!就是绝对不补前一张下的单还处在亏损状态的股票,这是一个铁定的纪律!!!必须牢记!

b. 下完单后的5-15分种,立马要作评估了并据此作以下行动,
1.将处在大亏的股票立马砍掉,毫不犹豫,必要时不息动用市价单,
2.若发现其中有一支买入的股票己处大赚中,你应本能动地再作以下动作:
放弃(平仓)余下的行尸走肉股,将你的注意力完全集中于这一支赚钱的股票上,如你够狠,可将所有平仓出来的资金再全部补入这一支赚钱的股票上.

你的股票在飞,,,,,,祝贺你! 今天你抢到钱了.就这么简单.



三.注意事项:
a. 你今天将方向全弄错了,没关系,设定一个能容忍的总额止损,价格一到,眼晴一闭全部砍掉,再不入市.

b. 你今天运气特好,而且可能就在开市后的几分种你便得手了,并作了获利了结!
你得意忘形了?

严重提醒:你得动用一切手段来阻止你的手去再度发痒,因为这时候的你,己定是自己巳不知道自己是谁了! 你的智商己近乎于零….

睡一觉,明天吧!

如此,,,日复又一日,简单吗?

daytrade!!!!!!
有人美昔其名叫”终极投资人”,很励害!! 但俺听起来更象是叫”终结投资者”, 刀口上舔血?

故最后最后俺还是要认真劝一句,在当你还不具备足够的内功的前提下这玩意儿不玩的为好啊!
哪可才叫是”easy money easy go”呢!

SHORT list works so poor today (Mar 22, 2006)

今天其实是好天,在我手上握有60%空盘的情况下,今天大盘这样大涨,非但没有损失反而从以前的几个LONG POSITION赚了钱.

今天ENDING BALANCE 是49880.增长580

主要归功于
短线:
NTES PUT: 45
WEN LONG: 50
NVDA: 260 (昨天的短线SHORT 盘)
BIDU: 减少150损失
INTC: 减少80损失


SCREEN:

HUBG: 151

SHORT LIST 有很大问题,暂停使用

Proposal for Mar 22, Wednesday

1, Screen-060321-short1 (Proposed for Mar 22 use)

Total Debt/Equity >=1.0
Net Income <= 1.0m
Last Price Down % vs 200 day Mov Average >= 0.25%
Last Price Down % vs 50 day Mov Average between 0.25% to 3%
Market Cap <50b
Price % Loss vs Previous Close >= 0.5%
Held Institution <= 50%
Current Price >=10

ANR: 20.36 (20.18-20.77)
JRCC: 31.61 (31.16-32.36)
mwp: 22.01 (22.01-22.31)
HTC: 14.72 (14.72-15.39)

2, Screen-LONG-060321A (Proposed for MAR 22 Wednesday)

THI: IPO $23 Bid!!!!

Total Debt/Equity <=0.5
Last Price Up % vs 200 day Mov Average between 0.25% - 50%
Last Price Up % vs 50 day Mov Average between 0.5% to 2%
Price % Gain vs Previous Close >= 0.5%
Held Institution >= 50%
Current Price >=10
Sales Growth This Quarter >= 10%
Outperform ^DJI by % >= 1
Return On Equity >= 1%
PE between (5,50)

GSF: 57.4 (56.70-58.43)

Lesson 1 learned from Screening

1) I took winning position for SHFL, but "take profit" thinking makes me sell a little early. Strong one will extend its strength, while weaker will continue its weakness. REMEMBER, Keep the winner and drop the loser (This loser is verified for a week)

2) The LONG creteria work so far, but SHORT creteria doesn't work so great.

Screen period summary (Mar 21, 2006)

Today (Mar 21, Tuesday) is the second day that I started using screen result for trading. It got evident period success that my Long picks work great so far that 2 of my screen picks (SHFL & DIOD) contributed $180(Mon)+$348(Tuesday) and $162(Tuesday) profit. Other than these 2 stocks, my LONG/SHORT were flat. the success pick rate is 25%, soso pick 80%.

The ending balance is $49375

The ending positions are:
NVDA: -100 (Cost 50.96)
GCT: -100 (Cost 11.49)
SRR: 100 (Cost 14.18)
JRCC: -200 (Cost: 31.68)
HUBG: 100 (Cost 44.11)
BCSB: -100 (Cost: 12.57)
DSPG: 100 (Cost: 27.59)
INTC: 200 (Cost 20.50)
BIDU: 100 (Cost 51.50)

060321(Tuesday picks)

Screen-Long-060321A

Last Price Up % vs 200 day Mov Average between 0.25% and 50%
Last Price Up % vs 50 day Mov Average between 0.5% and 2%
Price % Gain vs Previous Close >= 0.5%
Sales Growth this quarter >= 10%
Held Institution >= 50%
Current Price >=10
Total Debt/Equity <= 0.50
Return On Equity >= 1%
Current Ratio >=2
Out Performed ^DJI by % >= 1
P/E between 5 to 50

GNTX: 16.96
ADTN: 28.57
HTLD: 23.81
DSPG: 27.96
SRR: 14.46
SMBI: 23.57
OPTN: 13.88
GTIV: 17.46
RADN: 14

SCREEN PATTERN

I saw an excellent screen tool made by YAHOO. From I had beens seeing in the past weekend (Mar 18,19). I found it could be useful to "find" a winning screening pattern.

On the Monday, I defined the following criteria for SHORT and LONG:

1, LONG: (Name: Screen-060420-Long)
0) Price % Gain vs Previous Close >= 0.5%
1) Last Price UP% vs 50day MA >= 0.5%
2) Last Price UP% vs 200day MA >= 0.5%
3) Sales Growth Est Next Quater >= 10%
4) Market Cap <= 1b
5) Held Institution >=50%
6) Current Price >= 10

LONG List:
DIOD
BWS
HUBG
SHFL
GWR

2, Lost creteria
0) Price % Loss vs Previous Close >= 0.5%
1) Last Price DOWN % vs 50day MA >= 0.5%
2) Last Price DOWN % vs 200day MA >= 0.5%
3) Market Cap <= 1b
4) Held Institution >= 20%
5) Current Price >= 10

Ideal list:
IBA
PBT
JRCC *
SURW

Actual List:
MXRE
YSI
DPTR
MOD
ASPMMRGE

Actual Bought List:
BCSB
GCT

Day End perfomance:
LONG 3 STOCKS: Win $219
SHORT 2 stocks: Loss -$24
======================================
Total: $185 Used Fund $12473
Dayly Return: +1.48%

股市运动测得准亦或测不准？ ZT

http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=407266

海森堡测不准原理是量子论中最重要的理论之一。该理论指出，不可能同时精确地测量出粒子的动量和位置，因为在测量过程中仪器会对测量过程产生干扰，测量其动量就会改变其位置，反之亦然。所谓动量是速度与质量的乘积，既有大小，又有方向。

股市运动是否也有这种特性？
答案是有。要不，为什么有随机漫步理论呢？

股市运动是否也有这种特性？
答案是没有。要不，为什么有那么多交易员持续稳定地获利呢？

矛盾吗？不矛盾。

股市运动测得准亦或测不准？
答案是既测得准也测不准。

测不准是因为所谓的基本面从整体上讲跟股价其实没有任何关系。就像索罗斯所说，经济史是一部充满谎言的历史。到了一定的时候，必须由人来干预才能保持不崩溃。这是从长时间来说。时间长，速度小，因而动量小，此时根据海森堡测不准原理目标位置难以确定。

测不准是还因为所谓的技术走势在其短期内从整体上讲跟股价其实也没有任何关系。就像每个公司所说，我们只注重稳定的长期发展给股东以稳定的汇报。到了一定的时候，股价巨变gap up/down，原来是有庄家操作。这是从短时间来说。时间短，位置变动小，因而动量大，此时根据海森堡测不准原理目标由于质量一定而导致速度的大小和方向难以确定。

量子理论的重要研究手段是什么？对，是统计！

要使用统计，必须首先在不确定中寻找确定，然后才能在有限的确定中去统计整体的不确定。

怎样在股市中寻找有限的确定？土木工程学中有一门工具课叫有限元，说白了就是在误差精度范围内取一定的步长，作近似计算的叠加。所以关键词在于“在误差精度范围内取一定的步长，作近似计算的叠加”。

多长的步长在股市可取得有限的确定？每个人的经验和能力不一样，也就有不同的答案。但有一个基本原则，做option要比做股票更强调步长即时间段的重要性。每一次一个股票的完全操作-买进+卖出，是对函数Price=f(time)取了一个一介导数。每一次一个option的完全操作-买进+卖出，是对函数Price=f(time)取了一个二介导数。导数值为正代表获利。一介导数容易理解。二介导数有点不明显，但说白了就是要f(time)变得快，要么涨得快，要么跌得快。

option一月一次过期大约总共22个交易日，所以做option就是做自然的在22个交易日内的短线。除去过期前后大约各三天的非理性波动，实际可合理预测的时间只有16个交易日。这16个交易日要分成三段各5天：观察期，交易期，无奈期。所以做短线或option，如果不能以最多5天为步长比较准确地跟踪或预测市场，根本不可能谈胜率。

奇袭美军白虎团(GOOG MAR OE DAY PLAY)战斗

http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=407224
奇袭美军白虎团(GOOG MAR OE DAT PLAY)战斗

奇袭白虎团(GOOG MAR OE DAT PLAY)战斗

表现概括:两头好(开端A+和结尾A+),中间差(D+),总分 (B+)

派出硬骨头六连,午夜出发,直奔美军白虎团驻地,出发时间恰到好处,正是美韩军休息时分.在路上,发现有一敌人仓库守备薄弱,给兄弟部队及时通知,消全歼仓库守敌一个营.干净利落没有留下一个活口.其他敌人未察觉.打分A+(时机对,有TEAM WORK 精神)

六连按时到达美军白虎团驻地,对白虎团(GOOG CALL 340)实施突击,战果显赫,消灭敌人一个营,俘虏两个营.(帐户曾经变成250%),六连在处理战果时,低估了敌人的反抗能力,未能就地枪决俘虏,反被俘虏夺枪反击,造成连重大损失.最后六连连长不得不带剩余人马突围,损失一半人马.这中间的战斗过程可进我军实战反面教材.小部队出击应该心黑手狠,不能按大部队处理俘虏原则来对待,毕竟人数不够,不就地正法,反成祸害.切记. 中间战斗过程打分(D+)

在撤出白虎团驻地后,敌人主力追赶.六连连长及时通知友军配合,六连残部把敌人追赶引进友军埋伏圈.友军几次AMBUSH (LONG/SHORT结合),消灭美军两个营.六连发觉敌人已无法在340阵地打破僵局(下午很明显CALL/PUT在340势均力敌)后,反手设阵地等敌人进攻(卖CALL OPTION),使敌人在340阵地又留下伤亡1.5个连.友军在美军进攻340阵地时,用短促进攻,又歼灭美军1.5个连.尽管歼敌总数不上规模,但是在少量部队参与下,战术应用灵活.打分A+

整体战果(减我军伤亡),净歼灭美军2.5个营.总分B+

------------------------------------------------------------

下午340阵地就象挂在马脖子上的箩卜,看得见,吃不到
CALL/LONG 和 PUT/SHORT 都发挥340的想象力,象顶牛一样打来打去,最后两小时,LONG曾经想靠集团冲锋突破340,可就是最远打到339.99. SHORT方在340放了天量卖单.开始我在340填卖单,发现很难成交,就填339.99,成交了.

MM就这样把收盘停在340下几毛钱,两边CALL/PUT通吃.
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在震荡盘整的行情中,买OPTION不如SWING TRADE
在这种牛皮和熊皮交加的行情中,买OPTION非常难赚钱,方向对了,如果不及时获利了结,最后也有可能输进去.
=====================================================================================

今天在买OPTION操作上有可喜可悲之处.

我看到上午GOOG横盘,成交量不大,在335-336之间,我知道多空双方都在积攒力量,从CALL340巨大的成交量,我估计有人要赌CALL340,昨天分析往上可能性只有30%,通过上午观察,以下几点理由使我下决心,BET CALL
1, DOW在GE坏消息下,还是涨,说明仍然有向上的惯性.
2, NAZ 是绿
3, GOOG CALL340有大交易量.

I MADE RIGHT DECISION AT RIGHT TIME. 我在上午买了CALL340,AT $1.15 和 $1.2 是当天到那时为止的最低点.之后GOG就被大户PUSH,扶摇直上到340,曾经冲破341.48,那时CALL340是$3.9,我填了$4.0,WHY?贪心啊,如果填3.5,今天我就可以多$600实事进帐,当时有一种想赌大赢的冲动,(想BALANCE冲50000),

之后GOOG 从LUNCH 到2:15PM,一直在340-341之间,这时候CALL340大约在1.85-2.2左右,我还是有机会赢利出场的,可惜一种冲50000的冲动使我,没有及时了结.最后等3:00后GOOG跌破339后,我发现无力向上了,就在$0.50案左右卖了.

好在我醒悟得不算晚,居然通过短线LONG/SHORT和买卖PUT,和最后卖CALL340,又把钱原来失去的赢钱又拿回来70%.

ENDING BALANCE: 48400

Good article about 4th episode of SP no correction

http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=407235

SP-the fourth episode

Not many people know about this, and even fewer people care. You might not think it’s a big deal either... until I tell you that this landmark has always marked a plunge in the S&P 500.

Before I go any further, I’d like to credit Jason Goepfert of sentimentrader.com for bringing this event to my attention. I took this research – and the charts - from his daily commentary.

The milestone is three years without at a correction in the stock market.

A correction is defined as a fall of 10% or greater in the S&P 500, marked from the highest point of the last six months. The most recent correction took the S&P from 935 to 788 between January and March 2003.

This three-year period of low-volatility and rising prices is a sign of complacency in the stock market. Ten percent corrections are very common in the markets – even in bull markets – and you can expect to see one about every two years.

But to go without a correction for three years...? It’s only happened three times in the last 110 years.

Between 1962 and 1965, the S&P moved from 51 to 94 in a stretch of 3 years and 3 months without a correction. Over the next 9 months, the S&P fell 24%.

July 1984 and August 1987, the S&P rose from 147 to 338, a stretch of 37 months with no correction. A new Fed chairman took his seat on August 11, 1987, one of the last days of the streak. His name was Alan Greenspan.

Two months later, he presided over the greatest one-day correction of all-time: Black Monday. The S&P dropped 34% that day.

Between January 1991 and May 1994, the S&P rose from 309 to 483. This 36-month stretch was part of a bull market that followed the invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. The S&P fell 10% over the following 3 months.

Now, it's fourth episode in complacency.

Things are never different. If a ten-percent correction hits the S&P sometime between now and June, don’t say you haven’t been warned…
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=407235

GOOG looks like kids

最近GOOG的脾气有点象小孩子的脾气,多变,DAY ONE 有消息了,股票涨了,散户们欢欣鼓舞,以为还要创新高.DAY TWO就拉高后出货,把DAY ONE的LONG们挣的钱非但全部拿回去,还拿得更多,DAY THREE SHORT们欢欣鼓舞,认为GOOG又要创新低.其实又错了,DAY FOUR, GOOG又涨上去了.

这简直和我家小儿子脾气一样.一会儿高兴一会儿发作.

Another great day on trading GOOG (06-03-16 Thursday 1 day before March OE)

火烧日军阳明堡机场战斗总结(GOOG 060316 THURSDAY SHORT/PUT)

八路军战果:(PUT)

战果:烧毁日军飞机24架
歼灭日军守备部队:一个大队(相当于国军一个加强营)

国军战果:(SHORT)
国军卫立惶将军趁日军慌乱之迹,动用国军主力一个军追杀日军,歼灭日军两个团


日军在机场原有飞机100架左右,八路军由于没有汽车只能步行,没能把100架飞机连锅端掉.部分日军飞机起飞去轰炸国军阵地,如果能早到15分钟,战果还能扩大.(PUT价格并没有落在预设价位内,估计有一定误差,大方向做对,后跟进追买PUT)

国军部队一开始没有配合八路军行动(抢BOTTOM FISH),遭到日本空军轰炸有一定损失,后来卫立惶将军果断命令地面部队主力出击日军(SHORT),国军战果最后超过八路军.

火烧日军阳明堡机场的八路军129师独立团顺利返回.

=================================================================

In the morning of Mar 16,2006 Thursday. Something intersting brought my attention. GOOG transaction is extremly low! It bounced to 348 in the early morning, now it is $344-345 when I get to office at 10:15AM.

I observed for a while and decided to take PUT approache. I aimed at PUT330 and PUT340 which was around 0.8-1.0 and 2.50-2.80. I tried to buy them at 0.4 and 1.6 when they were 0.5 and 1.9, only step away I missed the best buying opportunity.

Starting from 0.5 and 1.9 at 12:55, they started big drop with big volume. I acertain the down trend and decided to catch. I bought PUT360 at 2.8, 2.75 and 2.40 from 13:21 to 13:36. In the mean time I did 2 short sell from 344 down to 343.78 winning $40.

At the time around 1:50, I saw little sign of "UP" and "bounce" (OOPS, actually it is my thinking of SWING TRADE, I didn't truely believe it may drop under 340). By this mood, I decided to catch bottom fish when GOOG dropped under 343. I bought first 100 shares at 342.98, second 100 shares at 342.50 and third 100 shares at 341.60. In the mean time, I try to play both-end catch option strategy that I bought 1 CALL350 at $1.5 When I saw it continued droping and broke down 341, I made cut-loss decision to sell these 300 shares are 341, 341 and 341.18. This round I lost
(34100+34100+34118)-(34298+34250+34160+3+3) = -396

I lost $396 in this "catch bottom fish attempt". Fortunately enought that I made very couragouse CUT LOSS DECISION which I rarely made before. This is first SHINING POINT TODAY!!!!

I also cut CALL350 at 1.30 at market price. It gave me $20+2 = $22 loss.

I am glad it dropped again under 341. When GOOG bounce back at 341.50 twice at 14:29 and 14:31. I was not fooled by MM again. I shorted 200 shares at $341.50 at 14:29 and 14:31. THIS IS SECOND SHINNIGN POINT TODAY.

At this time, my balance is at the rim of margin call (I call hold 200 DIA and 100 BIDU, 100 NVDA). I decided to release fund from NVDA first that I took profit of 90 from NVDA. and cut loss of $92 from 200 SHORT of DIA. Thus I can hold my SHORT positions.

At 2:40PM, huge sell pushed GOOG down under 340 around 339.5. My new SHORT position will almost replenish my loss in CUT-LOSS!. I wait to cover my short when I won totally. I didn't sell these 200 even at the end of session when GOOG hit 338.77. I found it slipped AH. I sold these 200 at 338.38 and 337.88 which just made my account exceeding 48000.

48000 is a milestone in two aspects:
First, I recovered from BIDU/SNDA ER nightmare, I recovered $8500 in 13 trading days!
Second, 48000 has 4000 surpass on my most recent add-on balance of 44000 when i added 19000 after my failure on BIDU last autumn.

Ending balance: 48009.66
Ending positions:
-101 DIA
100 BIDU
200 INTC

bluelight's trading blog

http://bluelightnewsletter.blogspot.com/

What does pros say about trading

Re: Day Trading Question for Pros
by: megayieldseeker (42/M) 03/15/06 06:58 pm
Msg: 681824 of 681973

Hi, I am a full-time trader/investor out of my own account, for about 5 yrs. Here are my dozen pearls of wisdom. By "my" I don't mean I invented them, only that I believe in and use these ideas, which came from other traders and investors.

1) Sell your losers fast and let your winners run. This rule, all by itself, separates winning traders from losing ones, but is very hard to implement once you get out of a practice account and into your real money.

2) Put in a stop loss at 7-8 % of your order price, and never change it, no matter what happens in the market

3) Never average down. If the market moves against your trade, let it get stopped out (per rule # 2 above) and never look back

4) When you take a loss on a stock, do not allow yourself to trade it again for a reasonable period of time like a week or two. Otherwise, you will get caught up in the powerful and money-losing emotion called "getting back to even".

5) Don't argue with the market. The market is always right. It doesn't need a reason, it just is. If you find yourself arguing against the market on a particular stock, get the hell out, lick your wounds, and move on.

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - J.K. Galbraith

7) Buy half a position, and then, if the stock moves the way you want it to, buy the other half a few weeks later.

8) Momentum doesn't last forever. Understand where you are in the momentum cycle before buying a momentum stock. Even if the price is still going up, if the volume is flat or declining, you could be at the tail end of the momentum run.

9) Don't be greedy. Decide on a reasonable profit when you enter the trade, and cash it out if you hit that profit level. 20-30 % is an outstanding profit for most stock positions, and you should happily take it and move on if you can. What Cramer calls "Pigs get slaughtered," but the idea is much, much older than Cramer.

10) The market is pretty random. Avoid thinking you can outsmart or predict it, e.g. with charts, financial statement analysis, oscillators, etc. You can't. No one can predict the market. If there was a method for predicting the future with even a 50.00000000001 % accuracy rate, it would be buried in an underground vault and guarded by a heavily-armed Army division. The best you will ever do is the 50 % odds of a coin-flip, which is much more than sufficient if you...cut your losses fast and let your winners run (see Rule # 1)

11) Bet on sectors, not individual stocks, in most cases. The large buyers who control stock prices make sector bets. A good company in a bad sector will still get hammered; a mediocre company in a hot sector will do OK. Study sector trends and movements and invest accordingly.

12) Don't overtrade. The most important virtue of trading is patience - taking your finger off the "Sell" button. If you don't have real conviction in the trade, then why do it in the first place. If you have conviction, don't let it be shaken by a CNBC report, a Cramer mention, or a stock board. Without conviction, you're at great risk of buying the peaks of cycles in a panic, and selling the troughs in a panic. You must believe in your stock - or your short position.

And finally,

Don't be afraid to do nothing. Nobody ever lost money by sitting in the spectator seats and drinking a beer.

Sweet surpassing previous height 47500

After the previous trading day, I checked the new and found GOOG's rebounce mainly due to the "kind" word from reginal judge regarding US's givernemtn request of GOOG to submit random result to "submiting part result"

Therefore I thought the SHORT and PUT positions were safe. I renounce my idea of sellign off my SHORT position in the after hour session.

I spent my sleep at CIVIC hospital for SLEEP test. The SLEEP test went well so far but I felt a little tired for those annoying wires on my body. I fell asleep again after I back home at 6:00AM, I was so tired that 8:30 Pocket PC alarm can not awake me. When I waked up finally at 10:00AM, I opened PC, I found GOOG drop to 336-337. I was excited that my luck comes today

I sold 190 GOOG at 345.75 at home at 10:12AM

I entered one PUT340 $4.2 sell order before I left home.

When I get company at 11:00PM, GOOG dropped to 334-335, I filled in other 2 PUT340 at $4.8 and $5.4

Sell PUT360 at $2.1

Between 12:00-4:00PM , I did couple of short term trade of GOOG which is just so so that contributed only around $150. But I spent 2 hours on it. It really didn't worth it.

The finally profit contribution today:
GOOG: $879.60
GOOG340P: $662
GOOG350P: $98
Total: 1639.6

At the end of day, the DOW and NAZ had been increased a lot on the third days. I decided to SHORT DIA and NVDA.
Short DIA at 112.25 and 112.28
Short NVDA at 49.88

My final balance of today is $47700.
My potions:
-200 DIA
-100 NVDA
100 BIDU
200 INTC

Recap trading on Mar 14,2006 (Mixed feeling of glory and gloomy)

Mar 14, Tues, is a day mixed with glory and gloomy, and flat out at the end of the day.

1) Starting positions:
BIDU: 100
GOOG: 200
INTC: 200
SNDA: 300

GOOG-MAR06-350 C: 1
GOOG-MAR06-360 C: 1

2)Good point is that I get trend very well predicted that the bouncing back will happen earlier than my expected. I was expecting bouncing back within 3 days of OE. But based on the transaction of Monday. I got a feeling, I need to get in LONG/CALL position earlier than Wednesday.

So I add 100 more GOOG and 5 CALL350(1.45-1.7) and 3 360CALL (0.6-0.70) before lunch.

So at the time when I went to lunch(12:30PM), my positions of google are:
300 GOOG LONG ($350 at 1@:30PM)
6 CALL350
4 CALL360

In the monring, NAZ and NYSE had moderate gain but GOOG seems restricted. Before lunch, I entered 380 SELL , 342 sell and couple of option sells as usual swing trade.

3) The GOOG started bouncing at around 12:40PM. When I finished lunch at 1:00PM, I looked at my Pocket PC, I found GOOG was 341. I realized hugh bounce happening, so I say farewells to my lunchmates. When I returned to my desk, I found GOOG just surpassing 343, my 200 GOOG SELL were executed, and 7 options had been exceted too. (CALL350 is OK that 1.9-3.8 sold, so poor at CALL360 that 0.60 !!! I did find small stagement at 344. So I decided to sell remaining 100 shares of GOOG.

It worked very well that GOOG did drop back a lot after I sold at 344. I was delighted and think it could be great day of "moderate rebounce", I still didn't belive GOOG had "big" rebouce today. I left 1 CALL350 and 1 CALL360

I posted my excellent trade on wenxuecity, and I got many appraisals. My account balance at this time is around 37500 which almost match with my last heihht in the Feb OE week.

I was so causious that GOOG rally was not over yet, it actually had great momentum that from 1:45, it started bouncing again. I used to have a new staff meeting at 2:00PM, if the meeting were not cancelled, I would leave my cash still and 2 CALLs. The first new staff meeting was unexpectly cancelled which leave me time to watch. I made "BIG" mistakes during this period of time that I tried to "short" by assuming this is waning reboucing. I did couple of forth and back. I did have chance of LONG again. but I finally go to SHORT, which make me lost my winning in the first part of rally. When GOOG hit 349, I have to cut loss. Then I have only 35600.

4) Collect SHORT and PUT by the end of trading.

Fortunately, I decided to collect some cheap PUTs and I started SHORT GOOG at 350 which set my basis of gaing back in the following day.

By the end of trading, I keep
190 GOOG LONG (10 was sold by marging call)
4 GOOG MAR PUT340
1 GOOG MAR PUT350

Ending Balance: $45600 only $100 more than last day (Mar 13,MON)

5) Summary:
-Under estimate the bouncing strength of GOOG
-Unconsiderat SHORT thinking in the UP TREND
-Average down cost

I would hit $47500 if I don't above mistakes.

2006 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis

http://premium.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/mei/year/2006/yearly/12/index.html

Recap terning week of bad china week (Feb27-Mar3)

-End of Feb 27: 45903 (Holding 1100 Bidu$54.30 and 800 SNDA(16.93))
-End of Feb 28: 40042 (Holding 1000 Bidu$51.42 and 800 SNDA(13.55)
Loss $2500 on betting 800 SNDA ER
-End of Mar 1: 39533 (Holding 900 Bidu$51.24, -400 NVDA$48.92 and 800 SNDA(13.16)
-End of Mar 2: 41623 (Holding -100 GOOG$376.45, 0 BIDU $52.20 and 800 SNDA(13.16), 0 NVDA$48.69)
Sold BIDU at relative medium price cutting loss and good trade on NVDA

-End of Mar 3: 42473 (Holding INTC, NVDA, SNDA)
Good trade on GOOG , NVDA, Keep SNDA

Great week (Mar 6-10,2006)

Starting balance of the week Mar6-10 is 42473
End of Mar 6(Mon) is 42213
End of Mar 7(Tue) is 42709
End of Mar 8(Wed) is 44319.54 (SNDA&GOOG)
End of Mar 9(Thu) is 44094.54
End of Mar 10(Fri) is 45500 (GOOG, BIDU, SNDA)

Great 1st week of March

1) Keep BIDU until $54 to sell off, which cut 50% of loss

2) By trading(buy/short) GOOG and short NVDA,

The ending balance of Mar 9,2006 is 44200. It is great when the market nosed down recently.

It would be bug charllenge for next week GOOG OE.