THI Tim Hortons IPO

http://www.ipohome.com/marketwatch/iponews2.asp?article=4895

News from Reuters

Tim Hortons files for 29 mln share IPO

27/02/06

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Canadian restaurant chain Tim Hortons Inc., now owned by Wendy's International Inc. , may offer up to 29 million shares for between C$21 and C$23 a share, or about $18 to $20, according to a regulatory filing on Monday.

The company currently runs 2,885 coffee shops across the United States and Canada, according to the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Following the offering, Wendy's will continue to own as much as 85% of Tim Hortons stock, according to the prospectus.

Assuming the offering prices at $19 per share, the mid-point of the expected range, the company would have an initial market capitalization of about $3.6 billion.

The company earned C$191.1 million on revenue of C$960.3 million in 2005 after earning C$205.1 million on revenue of C$845.2 million in 2004, the filing said.

McDonald's Corp.'s initial public offering of its subsidiary Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. last month was saw the stock doubling to $44 a share on its first day of trade.

Chipotle's stock closed on Monday at $46.53 a share, or about 30 times expected 2007 earnings according to Reuters Estimates.

The offering will be underwritten by Goldman, Sachs & Co. and RBC Capital Markets, the filing said.

The company has applied for listings on the New York and Toronto Stock Exchange listings under the symbol "THI".

© Reuters Limited. All Rights Reserved.
Reproduction or redistribution of Reuters content, including framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.


http://www.ipohome.com/common/ipoprofile.asp?ticker=THI

Is it the way how ZTE compete with HUAWEI in Canada? LOL

中兴在加拿大寻找潜在合作伙伴以抗衡华为

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http://www.sina.com.cn 2006年02月28日 11:06 赛迪网

　　【赛迪网讯】2月28日来自多伦多的消息，中国第二大电信设备制造商中兴公司宣布说，他们正在和潜在的合作伙伴进行磋商，以便在未来几年内提高在加拿大电信市场上的地位。

　　“我们在加拿大有着长期的战略部署，而不仅仅是在销售方面。” 上周，负责中兴国际市场的副总裁叶卫民在与加拿大运营商及设备制造商的洽谈中宣称。

　　叶总裁对中兴在北美及南美市场的战略计划胸有成竹，他说：“在未来五年到十年内，中兴可能会成为加拿大的知名品牌。”

　　另外，总经理邢亚斌说，分公司成立已有一年，我们的目标是在2008年前实现每年一亿美元的销售额。但是，他并没有透露中兴今年的销售目标。

　　上周，中兴的主要竞争对手华为宣布和北电网络成立合资公司，中兴此举是对其作出的积极反应。

　　电信产业咨询公司SeaBoard Group的负责人Brian Sharwood，指出，中兴在加拿大的部署并不明显。与此同时，同城的华为公司，将运用北电网络的资源与加拿大的电信公司建立更深入的产品供应关系。

　　但是，中兴官方坚持认为即使华为成立了合资公司，他们也将比中兴晚两年成立加拿大分公司。

　　邢经理说：“当他们刚刚开始的时候，我们都已经在这里扎根了。”他还表示该分公司将在近期宣布和另外一家加拿大公司进行合作，这将刺激更多的中国资金投资于加拿大。

　　他还透露，位于多伦多的分公司，现在拥有20多名优秀员工，他们一直在和潜在的客户（加拿大贝尔、Telus Corp等）保持着良好的关系，但是中兴并没有和他们讨论合同的细节。

　　邢经理的计划是中兴加拿大分公司的规模最终与法国阿尔卡特相当，而后者在加拿大的子公司拥有2700名研发、制造、销售和客服人员。

　　他还暗示，即便北电和华为成立了合资公司，中兴依然愿意和这家加拿大公司发展更深入的关系。之前，北电和中兴已经有过很愉快的合作并且曾寻求合伙的机会。(c002)

　　作者：劭钊

盛大第四季净亏6680万美元 营收同比下滑16%

http://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2006-02-28/0703852829.shtml

盛大第四季净亏6680万美元 营收同比下滑16%

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http://www.sina.com.cn 2006年02月28日 07:03 新浪科技

　　新浪科技讯 美国东部时间2月27日16：30(北京时间2月28日5：30)消息，盛大(Nasdaq:SNDA)今天发布了截至12月31日的2005年第四季度财报。财报显示，盛大第四季度净营收为人民币3.605亿元(约合4470万美元)，同比下滑16.3%，比上一季度下滑27.8%；净亏损为人民币5.389亿元(约合6680万美元)，去年同期净利润为人民币2.314亿元，上一季度净利润为人民币2.611亿元。

　　2005年第四季度主要业绩：

　　-盛大第四季度净营收为人民币3.605亿元(约合4470万美元)，同比下滑16.3%，比上一季度下滑27.8%；

　　-第四季度网络游戏营收(包括MMORPG和休闲游戏)为人民币3.119亿元(约合3870万美元)，同比下滑20.1%，比上一季度下滑28.8%；

　　-第四季度盛大所有投入商用的网络游戏同时在线玩家人数峰值为268万人，高于上一季度的255万人，以及去年同期的200万人；

　　-第四季度来自EZ Pods销售的营收为人民币2250万元(约合280万美元)；

　　-第四季度净亏损为人民币5.389亿元(约合6680万美元)，去年同期净利润为人民币2.314亿元，上一季度净利润为人民币2.611亿元。第四季度每股美国存托凭证摊薄亏损为人民币7.58元(约合0.94美元)，去年同期每股美国存托凭证摊薄收益为人民币3.12元，上一季度每股美国存托凭证摊薄收益为人民币3.56元；

　　-第四季度出现亏损，主要由于同持有韩国网络游戏公司Actoz 38%股份相关的人民币5.215亿元(约合6460万美元)非现金减损支出，相当于每股美国存托凭证支出人民币7.32元(约合0.90美元)。

　　2005年主要业绩：

　　-盛大2005年净营收为人民币18.966亿元(约合2.35亿美元)，比2004年的人民币12.987亿元增长46.0%；

　　-2005年来自休闲游戏的营收为人民币4.03亿元(约合4990万美元)，比2004年的人民币2.145亿元增长87.9%；

　　-2005年盛大所有投入商用的网络游戏同时在线玩家人数峰值为268万人，比2004年的200万人增长34.1%；

　　-2005年净利润为人民币1.653亿元(约合2050万美元)，比2004年下滑72.9%。2005年每股美国存托凭证摊薄收益为人民币2.26元(约合0.28美元)，2004年每股美国存托凭证摊薄收益为人民币8.10元。

　　-不计入同Actoz相关的人民币5.215亿元(约合6460万美元)非现金减损支出，盛大2005年调整后净利润为人民币6.868亿元(约合8510万美元)，比2004年增长12.7%。

　　财务分析(未经审计)：

　　盛大第四季度净营收为人民币3.605亿元(约合4470万美元)，比去年同期的人民币4.309亿元下滑16.3%，比上一季度的人民币4.997亿元下滑27.8%。盛大2005年净营收为人民币18.966亿元(约合2.35亿美元)，比2004年的人民币12.987亿元增长46.0%。

　　盛大第四季度网络游戏营收为人民币3.119亿元(约合3870万美元)，同比下滑20.1%，比上一季度下滑28.8%。第四季度盛大所有投入商用的网络游戏同时在线玩家人数峰值为268万人，高于上一季度的255万人，以及去年同期的200万人。盛大同时在线玩家人数峰值的增长，主要得益于收购游戏茶苑，以及主要MMORPG游戏开始采用免费游戏模式。盛大2005年网络游戏营收为人民币16.583亿元(约合2.055亿美元)，比2004年的人民币12.092亿元增长37.1%。

　　盛大第四季度来自大型多人网络角色扮演游戏(MMORPG)的营收为人民币2.306亿元(约合2860万美元)，同比下滑23.2%，比上一季度下滑30.4%，在总营收中所占比例为64%。盛大MMORPG游戏营收的下滑主要由于网络游戏《传奇》营收的减少，以及主要MMORPG游戏开始采用免费游戏模式。盛大2005年来自MMORPG游戏的营收为人民币12.553亿元(约合1.556亿美元)，比2004年增长26.2%。

　　2005年第四季度，盛大投入商用的MMORPG游戏平均同时在线用户人数约为54.8万人，低于上一季度的63万人；盛大MMORPG游戏的每用户每小时平均营收为人民币0.19元，低于上一季度的人民币0.24元。

　　盛大第四季度来自休闲游戏的营收为人民币8130万元(约合1010万美元)，同比下滑9.6%，比上一季度下滑23.7%。盛大休闲游戏营收的下滑，主要由于休闲游戏《泡泡堂》营收的减少，以及受到季节因素的影响。2005年第四季度，盛大所有休闲游戏的同时在线玩家人数峰值为166万人，比上一季度的152万人增长9.2%，主要由于计入了游戏茶苑的数据。盛大2005年来自休闲游戏的营收为人民币4.03亿元(约合4990万美元)，比2004年的人民币2.145亿元增长87.9%

　　盛大第四季度的其它营收为人民币4860万元(约合600万美元)，同比增长19.4%，比上一季度下滑21.1%。盛大其它营收的下滑主要由于网络广告和ID安全产品“密宝”销售额的减少。不过，盛大第四季度来自EZ Pods的营收为人民币2250万元(约合280万美元)。盛大2005年其它营收为人民币2.383亿元(约合2950万美元)，2004年为人民币8950万元。

　　盛大第四季度毛利率为59.9%，低于去年同期的67.1%，以及上一季度的68.9%。盛大毛利率的下滑主要由于EZ Pod的利润率同网络游戏相比相对较低。盛大2005年毛利率为67.6%，高于2004年的63.7%。

　　盛大第四季度运营亏损为人民币2760万元(约合340万美元)，去年同期运营利润为人民币1.872亿元，上一季度运营利润为1.517亿元。盛大出现运营亏损，主要由于营收下滑，以及呆账准备和营销推广支出增加。盛大第四季度共计入了人民币4800万元(约合590万美元)的呆账，主要由于网络广告和“密宝”相关的应收款项过期未付。盛大营销推广支出的增加主要由于推广EZ系列产品和即将推出的新游戏。盛大2005年运营利润为人民币6.219亿元(约合7710万美元)，比2004年的人民币5.11亿元增长21.7%。盛大2005年运营利润率为32.8%，低于2004年的39.3%。

　　盛大第四季度净亏损为人民币5.389亿元(约合6680万美元)，去年同期净利润为人民币2.314亿元，上一季度净利润为人民币2.611亿元。盛大第四季度每股美国存托凭证摊薄亏损为人民币7.58元(约合0.94美元)，去年同期每股美国存托凭证摊薄收益为人民币3.12元，上一季度每股美国存托凭证摊薄收益为人民币3.56元。

　　盛大第四季度出现亏损，主要由于同持有韩国网络游戏公司Actoz 38%股份相关的人民币5.215亿元(约合6460万美元)非现金减损支出，相当于每股美国存托凭证支出人民币7.32元(约合0.90美元)。2005年2月，盛大以总计人民币8.78亿元(约合1.061亿美元)的价格收购了Actoz 公司38%的股份，每股收购价格高于Actoz公司当时的股价。盛大之所以在第四季度业绩中计入投资Actoz公司所导致的减损支出，主要由于向Actoz公司支付的《传奇》版权费用继续减少，此外Actoz公司股价持续下滑也是一个重要因素。

　　盛大2005年净利润为人民币1.653亿元(约合2050万美元)，比2004年下滑72.9%。2005年每股美国存托凭证摊薄收益为人民币2.26元(约合0.28美元)，2004年每股美国存托凭证摊薄收益为人民币8.10元。不计入同Actoz相关的人民币5.215亿元(约合6460万美元)非现金减损支出，盛大2005年调整后净利润为人民币6.868亿元(约合8510万美元)，比2004年增长12.7%。盛大2005年调整后每股美国存托凭证摊薄收益为人民币9.38元(约合1.16美元)，2004年为人民币8.10元(约合0.98美元)。

　　本报告中采用的人民币对美元的兑换汇率以2005年12月31日由联邦储备银行按海关用途核准的纽约市午间电汇汇率为准：人民币8.07020元兑换1美元。本报告中的百分比在人民币基础上计算得出。

　　股票回购：

　　按照公司的股票回购计划，盛大第四季度回购了37万股美国存托凭证，总计支出680万美元。截至2005年12月31日，盛大还可以再回购价值4320万美元的流通股。

　　电话会议：

　　盛大将于美国东部时间2月27日21：00(北京时间2月28日10：00)召开电话会议，届时盛大的管理团队将出席电话会议，回答投资者提问。要收听此次电话会议，美国用户可拨打888-889-5602，国际用户可拨打973-935-8599，密码为“6989143”。此外，投资者还可以访问盛大公司网站www.snda.com收听电话会议网络直播。

　　美国东部时间3月6日12：00(北京时间3月7日1：00)之前，用户还可以收听盛大电话会议录音，美国用户可拨打877-519-4471，国际用户可拨打973-341-3080，密码为“6989143”。(马丁)

盛大易宝入市3月滞留渠道 100万套大半压货

http://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2006-02-28/0237852777.shtml

盛大易宝入市3月滞留渠道 100万套大半压货

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http://www.sina.com.cn 2006年02月28日 02:37 第一财经日报

　　本报记者 沈娟 发自上海

　　“到目前为止，100万套易宝大多压在经销商手中。”

　　2005年12月上市后的一个月内，盛大易宝(EZPod)便宣称实现了100万套的销量。当时，陈天桥认为，易宝的市场订单充分证明了盛大的数字娱乐概念是符合市场需求的，是盛大






家庭娱乐战略推进的一个重要里程碑。

　　一位经销商对《第一财经日报》透露，投放市场近3个月后，这100万套易宝却仍然大部分滞留在经销商手中，市场反应十分冷淡。

　　“英特尔包销的50万套如此，我们这些地区经销商每个人同样也压着几千套货，或者再把它们压给小门店和经销商。”该经销商认为，这个市场的成熟还需要很长时间。

　　易宝滞留渠道

　　为了推广易宝，盛大确实为其打造了形式多样的渠道模式。从盛大易宝的网站上可以看到，易宝目前已经在18个省份拥有24家地区经销商。同时,电话订购、网上购买、手机购买等多种销售平台也已搭建完成。

　　此外，盛大也在积极拓展和家电、电脑连锁卖场的合作。目前，国美、苏宁、宏图三胞等都是盛大的合作伙伴。在易宝推广过程中，这些卖场也是给足了陈天桥面子，比如成都国美3个卖场目前正进行“购买各品牌电脑加198元得易宝”的促销活动；永乐的促销方案则是“买笔记本电脑免费赠送易宝”。

　　经销商的热脸却并未激发起消费者的热情。记者从上海总经销商处了解到，目前上海地区一个月的销售量大概是4000~5000套,但这只是总经销商转到一些门店和连锁卖场等的数量。也就是说，这些产品仍只是在渠道中周转，并没有到最终消费者手中。

　　永乐上海相关人士透露，永乐免费送出的易宝至今大约在200套左右。

　　同样在全国销量排在前三名的成都地区经销商告诉记者，目前他们从盛大拿了大约4000套产品，总投入已达到人民币几百万元，市场销量则很少。“市场成熟还需要一段时间。”该经销商说。

　　随后，宁波等地区经销商也向记者提供了相同的信息。

　　经销商的赌博心态

　　对于一些已经入局的地区经销商来说，动辄上百万元的投入已经把他们和盛大捆绑在了一起，他们面临很多现实问题。

　　一位地区经销商刚刚完成了当地第一家盛大易宝体验中心的建设，他告诉记者，店铺和人员等费用都是自己出，盛大对体验中心产品、展台等方面支持力度也还很不够。

　　品牌宣传方面，盛大除了在央视一套、二套，上海东方卫视和湖南卫视等投放广告外，地方媒体的宣传还没有启动。“四川、广东和福建等地的经销商在一起聊过，大家都觉得盛大在这方面的支持不够。”某经销商抱怨称。

　　更让经销商忧心的是，盛大易宝渠道的后期政策尚未出台，“货压在经销商手里，出不去怎么办？目前盛大并没有给我们一个明确的说法。”不仅如此，“没有价保体系，如果易宝开始降价，我们并不知道该怎么办。”

　　“目前看盛大，盛大能活下来，我们就能活下来。其实大家都在赌，没有退路。”一位经销商无奈地说。

　　市场何时成熟？

　　而最让经销商担心的其实并不是现在卖不出去这些产品，而是易宝的市场会不会成熟？何时成熟？

　　盛大显然也意识到了这个问题，市场推广更是一致都在努力。一位游戏玩家告诉记者，在运行盛大新推的一款游戏“疯狂赛车”中，系统会提示，只有使用易宝才能更好地体验该游戏。除此以外，易宝还和一款同时在线人数超过70万人的休闲游戏泡泡堂一起推广。

　　但这些显然还不能催熟经销商的信心。一直在和盛大谈合作的永乐，到现在为止还没有开始入货。“一方面是因为价格还没有谈好。”永乐知情人士告诉记者，永乐希望进货价格200多元，而盛大出价在300多元。“即使认同了这个价格，这种情况下，我们更大的顾虑还是市场反应，如果造成太大的库存怎么办？”该人士说。

　　对易宝的产品成熟程度及市场并没有足够的信心，这也是永乐迟迟没有正式销售易宝的原因。“易宝只能卖给不懂电脑的人，但这些人又有多少玩游戏呢？”

　　记者手记

　　易宝滞销"盒子"怎么办？

　　沈娟/文

　　多少钱可以买到定价458元易宝(EZPod)，可以说是0元，也可以说是半价；哪里可以买到易宝，可以是卖场，可以是电话、网上甚至是手机定购；但谁会去买易宝？

　　央视上播放着的让人费解的易宝广告，经销商正在满世界地寻找真正消费易宝的受众人群……易宝到底想干什么？到底能干什么？

　　作为陈天桥的一枚棋子，易宝承载着盛大“宽带娱乐中心”的梦想出现在消费者面前。“用遥控器上互联网这样的梦想，比尔·盖茨做过，但失败了；比尔·盖茨最好的合作伙伴保罗·艾伦也做过，他也失败了。今天，一个中国公司要继续这个梦想。”陈天桥说。

　　但“遥控器＋接收头＋光盘”的易宝真能承载如此之重的期待？

　　去年青岛CES上盛大盒子(EZStation)战略宣布后，“盒子”始终没能亮相，进展缓慢。此时，在从游戏运营商向家庭娱乐中心战略转型的过程中，盛大太需要有个“看得见的东西”出来让别人看看，于是易宝出炉。

　　而现在，经销商手中的100万套易宝售出有限，让盛大的光荣梦想看起来遥不可及。

　　在盛大的战略里，易宝只是第一步，接下来的重头戏还有“盒子”。但是“盒子”又能在多大程度上改变易宝现有的问题？

　　我们首先看到的是，从去年盛大开始阐述“盒子”理念开始，市场环境已经发生了很大变化。如今，数字电视和IPTV强力夹攻，电信和广电从博弈转向越来越多的合作，三网融合也被写入“十一五”规划。这个时候，盛大面临的问题是：倘若“盒子”能实现的种种功能，消费者可以通过电信或广电免费的机顶盒实现，谁还会去掏这几千元？

　　还有一个重要的问题在于，让电视成为互联网终端从技术上不难实现，但把互联网内容完全搬到电视上，这条道路却未必行得通。

BAIDU insider sucks (for 06-02-22)

It was Feb 22, 06 (Wednesday). I was a little upset about IB sold my 100 share out of 200 of BIDU after hour in the previous trading day(06-02-22).

At the opening, I still have 100 shares. BIDU was jumping to 62 pre-market. I was so excited to harvest another $800-1000 gain.

It dropped to 58-59. I didn't care much. I thought it would bounce back. Unfortrnately BIDU slide without any strong support which puzzled me. For this shining ER, it slides like skating in winter. Only one answer: insiders had absorbed the news way before ER release date. What a suck BIDU insiders! This is China, isn't it? Anytime playing with CHINA related stocks, you are betting with large number of greedy insiders.

Due to its good ER, I still believe it would bounce back. So I took average down strategy to lower the cost. The ending cost of 1500 BIDU was 56.14.

What a bad day losing to CHINA insiders!!!

Good Day of BIDU after Feb OE week (06-02-21 Tuesday)

Due to the US president day (Feb 20,2006 Monday). The US market were closed on Monday.

It opens on Tuesday. Both DOW and NASDAQ are in the down trend. GOOG fluctuatea arounf 365-373 closed at 368.

BIDU is going to release Q4 quarter ER after hour. I saw BIDU stands very well at above 50 from technical point of view. The volumn is up. plus 50 is very attractive price. I remember Pap Jeffery recommend below 50 when it dumps BIDU couple of months ago.

I bought 100 BIDU at 51.50 and 100 BIDU at 51.40. At 17:26PM, BIDU released ER: It looks great:

Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2005 Highlights

* Fourth quarter 2005 total revenues increased to RMB114.9 million ($14.2
million), representing a 29.2% increase from the previous quarter and a
167.7% increase from the corresponding period in 2004.

* Fiscal year 2005 total revenues increased to RMB319.2 million ($39.6
million), representing a 171.8% increase from 2004.

* Fourth quarter 2005 net income increased to RMB24.5 million ($3.0
million), representing a 188.7% increase from the previous quarter and a
285.6% increase from the corresponding period in 2004. Basic and diluted
earnings per share ("EPS") for the fourth quarter 2005 were RMB0.75
($0.09) and RMB0.71 ($0.09), respectively; basic and diluted EPS
excluding share-based compensation expenses (non-GAAP) for the fourth
quarter of 2005 were RMB1.06 ($0.13) and RMB1.01 ($0.13), respectively.

* Fiscal year 2005 net income increased to RMB47.6 million ($5.9 million),
representing a 296.5% increase from 2004. Basic and diluted EPS for 2005
were RMB2.40 ($0.30) and RMB1.49 ($0.18), respectively; basic and
diluted EPS excluding share-based compensation expenses (non-GAAP) for
2005 were RMB4.10 ($0.51) and RMB2.53 ($0.31), respectively.

* The number of active online marketing customers during the fourth
quarter grew to over 63,000, an increase of 18.6% from the previous
quarter.


I sold 100 BIDU at 58.48 at 19:05. What a joke the AH market quote stooped at 18:30PM, How come my order still filled? I sent inquiry Email to IB

Gain today: $1400

Ending balance: $48360.24

A place to look at sentiment

http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/weekly_numerical.htm

06-02-17 OE Day Record

Continue with yesterday's momendum, GOOG was priced higher before market open. It reached $371, $5 increase from yesterday closing. It gave me oppotimistic feeling.

Since I didn't feel well today and badly under the weather that headache/sneezing/Nose Liquid. I cancelled the EXAM by informing MBA office.

So I have enough time to play with OE date. When GOOG reach 371.7, it dropped down suddenly to 365 then 363. I thought it is excellent chance to get in. So I fillde a market order to buy 100 GOOG. It got at 350.01. Then GOOG went up to 380.

GOOG walked around 380-390 for a long time. I saw GOOG370 at 1.25-1.40 range. I thouhgt it is a chance. I bought some. I have max 19 GOOG370 contract at the average cost at around 1.4.

On 1:00PM, GOOG began to rise to 371. I sold GOOG370 CALL gradually at 1.80-2.5. At the time when GOOG370 reached 2.5, my account value was 48400. I left 6 contract to Hao to sell on 2:00PM because I need to see doctor changing sick note.

When I came back at 3:30PM, I found Hao only sell 2 contract at 2:00 then GOOG370CALL dropped to 0.25 when GOOG dropped to 369.00-369.30. I managed to sell remaining calls at around 0.25 and 0.30. Hao missed at least $720 profit

Overall performance today:

GOOG :100 SHARES COST 350.00 SELL AT 367.68 net profit 266
GOOG360 CALL SELL AT 9.6 net profit 915.36
GOOG370 CALL net profit 520.52

Ending balance of IB: 46959.42

In Ametradr, sell 50 GOOG at 369.28 cost 343.
Profit: (369.28-343) * 50 - 10.99 *2 = 1292.02

Ending balance of Ameritrade is 20814.42

明天(060217)GOOG 操作计划

明天GOOG 操作计划

文章来源: keepinhand 于 2006-02-16 20:55:29



如果NAZ和DOW没有大的坏消息的话,

明天GOOG可能要冲击380,向下回调支撑位365.

给LP定以下指导性计划:
1) STOCK 可以SWING TRADE
2) OPTION:
2.1) GOOG370的CALL OPTION将成为重点,将有很大的波动.上可到$10,下可到$2,OR $0.
2.2) GOOG360的CALL是收获的,逢高出货吧.

给自己计划:
1)当GOOG下探时365时,卖G00G360 PUT,
2)当GOOG下探时365时,LONG GOOG

坚定GOOG中期可达390.

What a happy day (06-02-16 Thursday)

Today is the last second of OE date of GOOG FEB06 options.

Upsetted by yesterday's margin call(clear my 29 GOOG370FEB06CALL,(starting balance 33000) I opened the PC and browse the market. That was 10:00AM 30 minutes after opening.

GOOG looks flat at around $344. It is very interesting that at that time GOOG CALL options looks pretty cheap. GOOG370 ($0.15) GOOG360 ($0.40) and GOOG350 ($2.40). I didn't count much on GOOG370CALL because it is far way from the cut line. I input following winning trades:
1) Total 7 GOOG360FEB-CALL at 0.4(3 contracts) and 0.45(4 contracts) 10:58AM-10:59AM
2) Total 2 GOOG350FEB-CALL at 2.4 (2 contracts) 10:49:19AM

From 11:53AM- 12:37PM, sell 19 of 21 exisiting 370CALLs, price ranging from 0.85-2.00

Then GOOG turns down to 365. At that time, my balance turns to $40500-$41000. It is pavital point that should I sell to get existing profit or wait for big gain. After noticing resolute buy orders even when GOOG dropped to $365. At that time my net value(excluding option was 37500, I select wait. At this time, GOOG370 call dropped to $0.60 (What a chance to get back), I input buy order at $0.50 missing this chance to re-stuff my positions.

After Lunch, at around 2:00PM, GOOG began rising again. When GOOG broke 362, starting selling part of GOOG350 and GOOG360 and GOOG370 option to keep the profit.

1) GOOG 360 options:
Starting selling from 15:19PM, total 6 contract pricing from 4.8, 5.4,5.5,6.9,6.9,7.5
2) GOOG 350 options:
Starting selling from 15:19PM, total 2 contract pricing from 12.8,13.5
3) GOOG 370 options:
Sell 1 of remaing 2 GOOG370 option at 15:43:52 at $2
4) GOOG
Sell 60 GOOG at 365 at 15:52, Sell 100 GOOG at 365.75 at 15:55

Summary of RELIZED GAIN trade:

GOOG350: 2146
GOOG360: 3432.14
GOOG370: 2297.31
GOOG: 3395.32

Ending balance: 46250

What a day!

Max Pain Theory in Option closing

http://65.108.12.28/cgi-bin/maxpain.cgi

http://market.cs.purdue.edu/

http://www.iqauto.com/cgi-bin/pain.pl

Barron sucks

It was in the perfect sense at the end of closing of last Friday (Feb 10) that my ending balance was 40717. GOOG closed at 362.00 Baron released downgrade on GOOG

Then GOOG dropped to 346 on Monday. bad days.

Nightmare continues to Wednesday when I wish a rebounce, it seems to rebounce to 345-346, but it dropped to 341-342 at the closing.

GOOG-FEB360CALL lose: $77
GOOG-FEB370CALL lose: $1583.84
GOOG-FEB380CALL lose: $1292.5
GOOG-FEB390CALL lose: $1258
GOOG lose: $124

Totasl lose: 4335.34

Good IH and unlucky AH (06-02-10Fri)

Starting balance: 39500
Position: 3 GOOG380CALL
10 GOOG390CALL

Ending balance: 40771
Position: 100 GOOG
1 GOOG370CALL
5 GOOG380CALL
10 GOOG390CALL

I made excellent short term trade on GOOG and win 710
Also GOOG370CALL was done very well that I bought at 3.8-4.0 and sold at 5.5 when GOOG ruches to 364 at the end of trading day

Unfortunately, GOOG dropped a lot after hour. It even dropped to 350. I added 100 GOOG at 353, which ends at 353.6-354.

It is a little pity but the AH situation is beyond my control. Wish GOOG fluctuate on next Monday.

Record on Feb 9,06

I was walking on the right direction in the morning when I add one $375 SHORT and $365 LONG order. Unfortrunately the range was 365.40-374.6.

After lunch, I started short GOOG AT 370 and sell naked out-ot-money 390 call, it is the right direction while gave me $450 profit and push my balance to 41000.

What a pity I took profit so early when GOOG began dropping with NASDAQ trend. I lost 1000 from 200 GOOG at the time when GOOG hit 358. I quit so early at 358 while GOOG bounced back to 364 after hour.

Pain ---> Panic closing!!!

What I can wish to exit position tomorrow

Big win on IB

Opening balance: 36200
Ending balance: 40780

Contributor:

4 GOOG390PUT
ShortTrade of Couple of small options and GOOG

Sweet day

Screening web sites

aaii
moneycentral.msn
advisorinsight
morningstar
barchart
my.zacks
b4utrade
nasdaq
businessweek
pristine
cbs.marketwatch
screen.yahoo
equitymodel
smartmoney
estrong
sixer
fidelity
stockworm
idayo
incrediblecharts
troweprice
investors
valueengine
investors.reuters
wallstreetcity
marketscreen

BVX.TO

BVX.TO is the one Ryan bought.

Oil startup!

Win $2300 from Ameritrade

It is so sweet to get some 7 GOOG PUT before the end of Thursday (Feb 2).

Cost of GOOG 380PUT:
2 for $6.2
5 for $3.9

At the time market opening on Feb 3,2006. GOOG dropped, 7 GOOG380PUT were sold at 7.8

Profit: $2300

What a pity if I wait 30 minutes more when GOOG dropped to 372 when GOOG380PUT was $15?

Anyway, get something is better than getting nothing.

good article

This is good article from YAHOO

Thank you. Doesn't hurt for longs and shorts to lay down weapons and look at reason, does it.

As I said in my last post, I am crossing over into a situation where I am starting to make more money and/or percentage gains (leverage) on my bearish strategic positionings than I am on my bullish ones with GOOG. Since December, I've jumped quickly on sudden opportunities to capitalize on (and hedge against) downswings that have, inadvertantly, ended up paying off (looking back) better and better and more quickly and in large unexpected quick gains.

Here's the deal....we have a situation with GOOG, it appears, whereby it looks like it may take an ENORMOUS effort to PUSH AND PUSH AND LIFT this stock up to even the 425-435 areas that I started projecting a day os so ago. A MAJOR effort right now. BUT....it also appears that THE SLIGHTEST TINIEST FEATHER-WEIGHT LITTLE EFFORT MAY knock this thing down HARD and FAST as it has down twice since Jan 19 and did, to a lesser degree, today at the EOD. Upward momentum at this time is showing TREMENDOUS strain, while downward momentum can happen in a SNAP. That is a VERY tenuous scenario.......to say the least.

We are in a NEWS DRIVEN MARKET. On top of that, we have a FED tightening the screws to a point where we have seen a rather f%#ked up market for years and now we WERE looking at a chance to end all this shit UNTIL the threat of inflation (energy and global economics contributing) was suddenly heightened by the possibility of a heating up job market, as the unemployment numbers are out tomoorrow...and they are now a MAJOR, MAJOR cause for concern to markets because they could spell MORE rate hikes than anticipated. Last year, in January, the FED minutes were released in JAN and they spelled doom for the whole year...which is EXACTLY what we got....a LOUSY year....with FY E/Rs now showing how lousy a year it was. GOOG cannot be expected to have the ENORMOUS thrust it needs in order to lift its head off the pavement and advance to even the 420s and 430s while the DOW AND THE NAZ AND THE S&P are all bleeding STREAMS OF RED NUMBERS ACROSS THE TICKER. Another triple digit DOW deline tomorrow and I guarantee you we will see the NAZ in the upper two digit REDs and the S&P into double digit REDs as well.....and GOOG will NOT fare well in this.

We have 4 MAJOR indicators coming out tomorrow:
1) BIGGEST, by far: 8:30am ET. Employment numbers. A huge, huge, market moving, hold your breath, indicator. Rumors strated creeping in that this number may be more negative for markets than previously thought. I believe that this, alone, was enough to finish the idexes off today...along with NEWS, etc.
2) 9:45am ET. U of Mich sentiment indicator. Can effect markets if wildly askew.
3) 10am ET. FACTORY ORDERS. Orders on durable and non-durable goods reported. Very important.
4) 10am ET. Non-Mfg business activity survey. A leading indicator of the economic pulse.

A real mine field.

If we can blow it all off, we'll see a roaring market with a DOW hitting close to or over 11,000.

Meanwhile, who knows which direction wins. It could be a very big spike or drop. To that end, I find myself (insofar as options go, anyway) at a much higher general put/call ratio than I've had for a LONG time.

itm2000.

GOOG bounce back

GOOG bounce back. I short it too early at 378 and 389. Anyhow I still truely believe the 380-395 range is for big MM to exit from position.

Patient please